This is what polls do to even the smartest of people
Posted : October 25, 2004 at 12:47 pm [America/Los_Angeles]
ZOGBY’S BUSH SURGE: Poring over the polls this morning, I’m struck by one big thing: Zogby is showing a real Bush surge in the battleground states. It’s dizzying following all the polls - and the races are still so close in so many states, I’m not sure what to make of snapshots like these. But Bush might be heartened. Zogby tends not to over-state his support, unlike Gallup. And he’s headed for a clear victory if these polls pan out.
I respect Andrew’s opinions a lot. And I don’t blame him for feeling this way. Frankly, I was pretty bummed myself. The general consensus in the blog community has been that Zogby is more trustworthy than most others, especially Gallup. However, AmericaBlog.org questions that assertion in his blog entry (“Lest we forget”) today.
In any case, here’s the funny thing. If you look at the numbers Zogby has cited, many of them have a MOE (margin of error) of + or - 4.1%. So, statistically speaking, almost all the states where it shows President Bush (or Senator Kerry) leading is actually a tie, except for Ohio and Michigan, which atleast in Zogby’s poll shows going for President Bush and Senator Kerry respectively. Add to this confusion the fact that there is an average of 4% to 5% Undecideds in each of the state results and you can see how these polls are utterly useless at this point to draw any conclusion.
The obvious result is - “Whoever does a better job of bringing their supporters out to vote between now and Nov. 2nd will win.” But then, you already knew that 
- Anand
Category: United (or not) State of American Politics 2004