How to know that your candidate (President Bush or Senator Kerry) is in trouble or doing ok on Nov. 2nd, 2004
Posted : October 21, 2004 at 10:53 am [America/Los_Angeles]
Al Gore-George Bush in 2000
In 2004
Poll Closing Times 2004
For me, it all started the week of July 20th of this year. I had taken a whole week off and as luck would have it, the Democrats were holding their Convention in Boston the same week. Political junkie that I am, I spent a good portion of my vacation watching MSNBC’s coverage of the DNC. Life has not been the same since then and I can hardly wait for Nov. 2nd!
Needless to say, all I can think of now is “How will I know if my guy is doing ok (or not) on the day of the Elections (Nov. 2nd, 2004)?”
Here’s how I see it:
If you see or hear that Senator Kerry has lost any of these nine States, he is in trouble (the higher up they’re in this list, the more fatal the blow)…
Pennsylvania (21 Electoral Votes)
Michigan (17 Electoral Votes)
New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes)
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes)
Oregon (7 Electoral Votes)
Iowa (7 Electoral Votes)
New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes)
Maine (4 Electoral Votes)
p.s. These states were won by Al Gore in 2000 and are very much in contention this time around.
If you see or hear that President Bush has lost any of these nine States, he is in trouble (the higher up they’re in this list, the more fatal the blow)…
Florida (27 Electoral Votes)
Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)
Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)
Arizona (10 Electoral Votes)
Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)
Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes)
West Virginia (5 Electoral Votes)
Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)
New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)
p.s. These states were won by President Bush in 2000 and are very much in contention this time around.
Some have tried to simplify this even further by saying:
There are essentially two trifectas that needs to be won.
2 of the 3 - PA, OH, FL
and
2 of the 3 - IA, WI, MN
Whoever wins the big three - PA, OH, and FL - wins the Presidential Election.
In other words, forget about National Polls. It means nothing. Nada. Zip.
- Anand
Category: United (or not) State of American Politics 2004