Is there any chance that AZ can go Blue this Presidential Elections?
Posted : October 20, 2004 at 10:26 am [America/Los_Angeles]
I know AZ is just about as Red a state as it can get. However, since my visit to Arizona during the third Presidential debate and upon insistence of one of my dearest of friends in AZ, I decided to dig a little deeper and see if there really was any chance that Senator Kerry could win.
Assumptions:
- Those who voted for President Bush and Pat Buchanan in 2000 will vote for President Bush in 2004
- Those who voted for Nader in 2000 will vote for Senator Kerry in 2004, since Ralph Nader is not on AZ ballots, I think
- Add into the mix the “newly” registered voters - Democrats, Republicans and Non-Affiliated (or Independents) as documented in an AP press release a few days back
In 2000 Presidential Elections… (Source: Federal Election Commission)
President Bush = 781,652
Pat Buchanan = 12,373
Al Gore = 685,341
Ralph Nader = 45,645
Translation for 2004 Presidential Elections..
President Bush = 781,652 + 12,373 = 794,025
Senator Kerry = 685,341 + 45,645 = 730,986
Difference =
63,039
New Registrations.. (Source: AP)
Democrats = 59,504
Republicans = 56,097
Non-Affiliated = 70,518
If we forget about Non-Affiliated for a second…
President Bush = 794,025 + 56,097 = 850,122
Senator Kerry = 730,986 + 59,504 = 790,490
Difference =
59,632
Which leaves us with the Non-Affiliated…
Newly registered Independents =
70,518
Is it mathematically possible for Senator Kerry to make up the negative 59,632 from this pool of approx. 70,000 independents! Mathematically, yes. Practically, probably not!
However, this sure proves one thing. Arizona is very much in play this Presidential Election. I think Senator Kerry would do himself a world of good if he could swing by the state for two stump speeches anytime between now and Nov. 2nd. And I am not the only one who thinks this. Here’s what Zogby thinks:
He (Zogby) cannot understand why the Democrats have pulled out of Arizona, Colorado and Missouri, among others. His polling is showing those states as close enough to at least force the Republicans onto the back foot.
Note:
Posted a comment on Eschaton about this entry. Got a few encouraging responses on the topic of AZ. Cool!
- Anand
Category: United (or not) State of American Politics 2004
2 Comments
Assumption #1 also assumes that there are no veterans, teachers, police, firefighters, women, gays, unemployed, underemplyed, parents, taxpayers, military or members of other groups alienated by pResident Bush living in AZ….
Posted by: deep ear at October 20, 2004 @ 6:40 pm
Great point! I was just trying to be nice to the President..;-)
- Anand
Posted by: Anand Sharma at October 20, 2004 @ 10:44 pm