Poll Schmoll
Posted : October 17, 2004 at 6:42 pm [America/Los_Angeles]
[via Poll: Presidential race still tight]
…
In the previous Gallup poll, taken October 9-10 after the second debate on October 8, Kerry and Bush were tied at 48 percent among registered voters. (Full story). The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group. That is still practically even — given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread — 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll.
…Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election (77 percent) than do Democrats (65 percent) and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in Gallup’s likely voter model.
…
I don’t think I agree with this notion that “…Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats..” Not after what I saw during my quick trip to Tempe, AZ. And that would explain the wierd numbers in Gallup’s polls.
Not that I was planning on trusting Gallup’s poll numbers for even a second!
- Anand
Category: United (or not) State of American Politics 2004