Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry seems to be doing great. But…
Posted : August 3, 2004 at 5:01 pm [America/Los_Angeles]
[via Electoral Vote Predictor 2004]
As on 05/24/2004
As on 08/03/2004
electoral-vote.com is an interesting site. It attempts to use the the most recent poll results from some of the big names in the polling business and translates it into what it means from an electoral vote standpoint on a particular day. As we all know, thanks to Gore’s 2000 debacle (or not), it does not matter who wins the popular vote. You get the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue only if you win the electoral votes. It’s really that simple.
Now, if you go thru the archives, there are days when Bush seems to have the keys to the White House and then there are days when he seems to be headed for Crawford, TX. To give you an idea, here are a few random samples from the archives:
| Date | Kerry EV | Bush EV | Kerry ev S/N (%) | Bush ev S/N (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24/2004 | 257 | 281 | 52.9 | 60.1 |
| 06/07/2004 | 312 | 226 | 48.3 | 57.5 |
| 07/01/2004 | 247 | 264 | 61.9 | 58.3 |
| 07/20/2004 | 322 | 205 | 37.26 | 65.8 |
| 08/03/2004 | 328 | 210 | 51.2 | 63.8 |
However, before a Kerry fan starts jumping at some of these recent numbers (and they really look good, especially after the convention), the problem area for Kerry is what I refer to as ev S/N ratio (electoral vote Signal-to-Noise ratio):
ev S/N ratio (for a candidate on a day of polling) =
(Total # of Strong Electoral Votes for the candidate)/(Total # of All Electoral Votes for the candidate)
A quick glance through the ev S/N % values for Bush clearly shows that he seems to have a much firmer grasp on his electoral votes than Kerry does. Even in the instances when the total electoral vote numbers for Kerry are high, they are so because more folks are leaning towards him. The key word here is leaning. Notice, I did not say that they’re strongly standing by his side. In other words, his electoral votes comprises of folks who are fickle. They can switch sides at the drop of a hat. I am afraid that one emotionally charged news item favoring this incumbent president (I don’t even want to think what it might be) can drive these fickle voters to Bush’s camp.
Frankly, I don’t blame Kerry for this. After all, this election is nothing but a referendum on Bush’s performance. It’s really not about Kerry. It never was. Not that there is anything wrong with it.
- Anand
Category: United (or not) State of American Politics 2004